4
Lumenbourg
5yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 65
Hamilton · Clearwater DC Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 6y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 02/05/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |