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2

Maldevious

4yo Filly · 11-2 · OR 69

Hamilton · Clearwater DC Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 6y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved breakthrough win at Thirsk in August and was quickly back on track at Newcastle last time. Drops back in grade here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 67 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 67 par10/045OR 674 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f15y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 5f217y GF 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 66 par30/044OR 665 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Std 139 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 6f6y Goo 129 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 64 par17/065OR 645 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f Sta 124 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 63 par1/086OR 635 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f182y Goo 137 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5/094OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle44th3rd+1
2026-08-11Carlisle55th5th0
2026-08-01Thirsk61st2nd−1
2026-06-26Newcastle59th9th0
2026-06-17Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-05-19Newcastle54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0419/051/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20264th28/10%79%+0.79
12/04/20269th12/137%11%-0.26
30/04/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
19/05/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
17/06/20263rd17/255%71%+0.16
26/06/20269th14/126%27%+0.01
01/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
11/08/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
05/09/20264th12/137%50%+0.13