Punchbowl Flyer
9yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 64
Hamilton · Clearwater DC Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 01/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |