3
Thistle Nil
4yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 68
Hamilton · Clearwater DC Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 6f 6y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 300/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 200/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |