Ponte Carlo

2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 63

Hamilton · Moira Stein Memorial EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f 7y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

68%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 4

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-09	Carlisle	5	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-08-08	Ayr	5	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-07-02	Nottingham	5	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-25	Newcastle	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-23	York	3	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-05-04	Beverley	4	8th	8th	0	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/04/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
04/05/2026	8th	3/1	84%	30%	-0.54
23/05/2026	6th	80/1	0%	29%	+0.29
25/06/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	78%	+0.15
02/07/2026	5th	9/1	53%	43%	-0.10
08/08/2026	4th	7/1	63%	63%	-0.01
09/09/2026	4th	16/1	16%	67%	+0.51