2
Fern Clyde
2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 65
Hamilton · Rotary Club East Kilbride Nursery Selling Handicap · 6f 6y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |