4
Lady Titania
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 53
Hamilton · Rotary Club East Kilbride Nursery Selling Handicap · 6f 6y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 2 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |