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2yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 66

Hamilton · Rotary Club East Kilbride Nursery Selling Handicap · 6f 6y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got back on track when making the frame at Carlisle on stable debut but went the wrong way upped to 1m at Thirsk last time. The return to sprinting should suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0444 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f7y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/0545 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 69 · 5f42y GF 129 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 69 par8/075OR 694 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 69 · 5f7y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 69 par16/074OR 693 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 66 · 5f182y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 66 par27/083OR 665 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 7f218y Goo 130 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 69 par5/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk59th9th0
2026-08-27Carlisle34th2nd+2
2026-07-16Hamilton43rd2nd+1
2026-07-08Yarmouth57th7th0
2026-05-27Hamilton44th3rd+1
2026-04-29Pontefract43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0427/058/0716/0727/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +18.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20263rd1/195%33%-0.61
27/05/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
08/07/20267th6/168%14%-0.54
16/07/20263rd9/153%0%-0.53
27/08/20264th40/10%70%+0.70
05/09/20269th33/10%0%0.00