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2yo Colt · 8-5 · OR 48

Hamilton · Rotary Club East Kilbride Nursery Selling Handicap · 6f 6y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★ Timeform

Commentary

Has made little impact so far and is hard to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f1y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/0444 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0442 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0524 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/0546 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 46 · 5f1y Goo 117 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 46 par25/086OR 464 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f7y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2/094OR 45projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton45th4th+1
2026-08-25Musselburgh66th7th−1
2026-05-30Chester47th6th+1
2026-05-21Musselburgh26th2nd+3
2026-04-29Musselburgh43rd2nd+1
2026-04-04Musselburgh46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0429/0421/0530/0525/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
29/04/20263rd25/10%0%0.00
21/05/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
30/05/20267th80/10%45%+0.45
25/08/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
02/09/20265th150/10%33%+0.33