El Matador
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 89
Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Haydock | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Doncaster | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |