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12

Good Morning Alex

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 70

Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous promise when recording an eighth career success over C&D (soft) last week, holding on gamely. Can go well again under a penalty now back on track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 83 · 7f14y Std 133 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 83 par13/014OR 833 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m5y Std 132 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 82 par6/024OR 824 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m5y Std 130 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m GS 134 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 78 par16/044OR 784 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m1f20y GF 128 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m100y Sft 141 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 74 par29/085OR 745 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m208y Goo 139 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Hamilton 20/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 1m68y Hvy 125 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 70 par20/094OR 70projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Hamilton41st2nd−1
2026-09-12Musselburgh55th7th−2
2026-08-29Beverley510th12th−2
2026-05-20Ayr410th11th−1
2026-04-16Ripon45th6th−1
2026-03-06Newcastle48th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/016/0329/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20266th22/10%0%0.00
31/01/20267th33/10%0%0.00
06/02/202611th50/10%9%+0.09
06/03/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
16/04/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
20/05/202610th12/137%10%-0.27
29/08/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
12/09/20265th33/10%56%+0.56
20/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00