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7

Hot Cash

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 82

Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner on soft ground at Carlisle last summer and returned to his best in first-time headgear (cheekpieces) when runner-up at Chester 16 days ago. Up 2 lb but he remains below his winning mark. Visor now tried.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m2f43y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 88 par11/092OR 884 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 86 · 1m113y GS 136 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 24 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 85 par18/042OR 853 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 83 · 7f218y Goo 128 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 85 · 1m113y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 85 par5/062OR 852 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 85 · 1m5y Sta 142 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 85 par25/074OR 854 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m100y Hvy 133 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 7f127y Sft 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 80 par12/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester42nd3rd−1
2026-08-30Beverley410th11th−1
2026-07-25Newcastle410th11th−1
2026-06-13Sandown28th7th+1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs22nd1st+1
2026-05-16Thirsk32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0916/0525/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20255th16/116%56%+0.40
28/09/20254th15/890%0%-0.90
18/04/202615th25/10%39%+0.39
16/05/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29
05/06/20262nd20/10%94%+0.94
13/06/20268th8/158%36%-0.22
25/07/202610th6/168%31%-0.38
30/08/202610th5/174%10%-0.64
12/09/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07