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Impartiality

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 87

Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong-travelling type who ran another solid race when third at Ayr 11 days ago. Drop back in trip should suit if anything and he's one for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 85 · 1m Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 85 par20/092OR 853 @ Hamilton 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m1f35y Sft 131 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m208y Gd 126 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 86 par12/043OR 863 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f218y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 1m2f70y Goo 123 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par13/063OR 833 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 85 · 1m1f35y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m1f207y Hvy 138 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 86 par30/083OR 863 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m2f70y Sft 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m2f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 86 par17/092OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr23rd2nd+1
2026-09-12Chester32nd2nd0
2026-08-30Beverley32nd2nd0
2026-08-11Hamilton32nd2nd0
2026-06-13Chester32nd2nd0
2026-05-16Thirsk38th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0916/0530/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20253rd7/163%85%+0.21
29/09/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
12/04/20269th10/147%27%-0.20
16/05/20268th7/163%42%-0.21
13/06/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
11/08/20262nd28/10%92%+0.92
30/08/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03
12/09/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
17/09/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04