8
Lir Speciale
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 82
Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA87 | 8th | 15th | −6 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA87 | 7th | 14th | −6 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.75 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 16/05/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 95% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 46% | -0.28 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |