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9

Milteye

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 81

Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

As good as ever when a narrow winner at Ripon (1m) in April. Mixed record since but he handles the mud so not out of things from an easing mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 1m6y GS 133 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 73 par18/094OR 732 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f50y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 1m53y Sft 134 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 77 par28/104OR 772 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 22nd of 22 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m GS 138 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 82 par16/044OR 823 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f219y Gd 137 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 84 par8/084OR 842 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m6y Gd 142 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 82 par17/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract46th7th−1
2026-08-31Ripon24th3rd+1
2026-08-08Ayr45th6th−1
2026-06-19Redcar38th8th0
2026-04-16Ripon41st2nd−1
2026-03-28Doncaster222th21th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0928/038/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
02/10/20256th13/266%50%-0.16
28/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
28/03/202622nd40/10%0%0.00
16/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
19/06/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
08/08/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
31/08/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
17/09/20266th9/276%44%-0.32