Rhoscolyn

8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 84

Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C2.5

Today: 3

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Haydock	3	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-31	Epsom Downs	3	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-29	Goodwood	2	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-08-22	Chester	2	13th	12th	+1	1.0
2026-07-29	Goodwood	3	19th	19th	0	1.0
2026-07-16	Hamilton	2	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength32%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/04/2026	5th	100/1	0%	43%	+0.43
02/05/2026	11th	22/1	0%	17%	+0.17
05/06/2026	11th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
16/07/2026	5th	22/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/07/2026	19th	12/1	37%	5%	-0.32
22/08/2026	13th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68
29/08/2026	8th	15/2	61%	30%	-0.31
31/08/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	86%	+0.02
05/09/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	90%	+0.02