4
Sujet
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 86
Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 19th | 18th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 13th | 11/4 | 86% | 8% | -0.78 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 7/4 | 91% | 18% | -0.73 |
| 13/06/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 22/08/2026 | 19th | 125/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 12/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |