Thunder Roar
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 87
Hamilton · John MacKenzie And Hamish MacGregor Memorial Handicap · 1m 68y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | 1 | 7th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/03/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 05/06/2026 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 54% | -0.17 |