Changeofmind

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 81

Hamilton · Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength27%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C3.7

Today: 3

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-13	Doncaster	3	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-09-04	Haydock	4	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-08-20	Newcastle	4	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-07-10	Chester	4	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-06-13	Chester	3	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-31	Thirsk	4	8th	9th	−1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength34%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/10/2025	5th	22/1	0%	64%	+0.64
16/05/2026	14th	16/1	16%	19%	+0.03
22/05/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
31/05/2026	8th	20/1	0%	56%	+0.56
13/06/2026	7th	4/1	79%	33%	-0.46
10/07/2026	6th	11/1	42%	0%	-0.42
20/08/2026	2nd	22/1	0%	92%	+0.92
04/09/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	80%	+0.54
13/09/2026	10th	33/1	0%	40%	+0.40