5
City Captain
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 82
Hamilton · Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 85/40 | 89% | 85% | -0.04 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |