Francisco's Piece
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 84
Hamilton · Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Catterick | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 20/09/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 10/10/2025 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |