Parisiac
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Hamilton · Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 30% | -0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.09 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |