Topwarrior
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 85
Hamilton · Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Haydock | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 28/06/2025 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.44 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 27/09/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/06/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 7% | -0.19 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 28/08/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |