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3

Great Profit

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70

Hamilton · Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap · 5f 7y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up 3 times on the spin before getting off the mark at Thirsk (6f) in early August. Only beaten 2 lengths when keen enough on final start for Gary Harrison at Newcastle earlier in the month but made a low-key start for his new yard at Ayr (5f, soft) 11 days ago. Bounce back needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f GF 13021/0654 @ Hamilton 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f195y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par18/054OR 626 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f7y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 60 par16/076OR 606 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 63 par7/086OR 635 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 70 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 70 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 70 par17/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr512th12th0
2026-09-05Newcastle53rd3rd0
2026-08-07Thirsk61st2nd−1
2026-07-27Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-16Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Ayr62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0620/067/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20256th15/261%17%-0.44
02/08/20254th17/255%0%-0.55
18/05/20268th200/10%30%+0.30
20/06/20262nd66/10%86%+0.86
16/07/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
27/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32
07/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/09/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03
17/09/202612th15/261%42%-0.18