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8

Never Dark

9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 51

Hamilton · Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap · 5f 7y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Isn't the force of old but has placed in a couple of handicaps off much-reduced mark this summer. Well held in a higher grade than necessary at Ayr 11 days ago and others preferred kept to this company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 64 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 64 par17/105OR 645 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Gd 148 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f20y Std 130 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/076OR 605 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 58 · 5f7y Gd 118 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 56 · 5f7y Goo 131 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 56 par11/086OR 566 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f7y GS 131 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 55 par27/086OR 556 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 122 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 54 par17/095OR 54projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr517th17th0
2026-09-09Carlisle67th8th−1
2026-08-27Carlisle63rd4th−1
2026-08-21Hamilton66th7th−1
2026-08-11Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-08-01Hamilton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/101/0827/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20257th33/10%33%+0.33
05/07/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
21/07/20266th6/168%50%-0.18
01/08/20267th25/10%40%+0.40
11/08/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
21/08/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
27/08/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12
09/09/20267th10/382%45%-0.37
17/09/202617th14/126%16%-0.11