IvyArcIvyArc
5

Solid Bond

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 58

Hamilton · Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap · 5f 7y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to form to get off the mark at the eleventh time of asking in 12-runner event at Carlisle (5f, good to soft) earlier in the month. Not the same form as last time having faced competition for the lead at Newcastle (5f) since, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 71 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 71 par5/094OR 715 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 24/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 135 · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 68 par24/095OR 686 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f3y Sft 134 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 61 · 5f217y Goo 133 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 61 par27/106OR 615 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 131 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 56 par18/065OR 566 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f Std 138 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 58 par19/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle69th10th−1
2026-09-09Carlisle61st2nd−1
2026-06-18Southwell53rd3rd0
2026-06-05Thirsk58th8th0
2025-10-27Redcar611th12th−1
2025-10-06Pontefract67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/096/1018/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20259th28/10%38%+0.38
14/09/20255th14/126%50%+0.24
24/09/202510th10/147%0%-0.47
06/10/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
27/10/202511th28/10%17%+0.17
05/06/20268th11/142%30%-0.12
18/06/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
09/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
19/09/20269th7/163%0%-0.63