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7

Supremissy

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 54

Hamilton · Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap · 5f 7y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved to make a successful handicap debut at Musselburgh in June and having largely struggled since, got back to best and confirmed herself effective on testing ground when second of 8 to Impressor over C&D 8 days ago. Needs to prove that wasn't a false dawn.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 1269/0954 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f7y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS3/0546 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 5f1y Gd 128 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 56 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 56 par8/086OR 566 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f7y GS 129 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 56 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 56 par27/086OR 566 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 55 · 5f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Hamilton 20/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f7y Hvy 134 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 54 par20/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-09-12Musselburgh69th10th−1
2026-08-27Carlisle67th8th−1
2026-08-21Hamilton64th5th−1
2026-08-08Ayr69th10th−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0922/0627/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength92%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/202510th40/10%0%0.00
19/03/20269th200/10%20%+0.20
03/05/20263rd66/10%33%+0.33
22/06/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
08/08/20269th20/10%27%+0.27
21/08/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
27/08/20267th7/163%40%-0.23
12/09/20269th8/158%20%-0.38
20/09/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30