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Thunderstorm Katie

5yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 70

Hamilton · Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap · 5f 7y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well placed/drawn when opening her account for the year at Ayr last month and was an excellent close second of 20 back there (5f, soft) 11 days ago. Not so good here (6f, soft) 3 days later, however, and forced to race from 2 lb higher now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 5f GF 125 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 59 par20/055OR 595 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 6f6y Goo 127 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 5f7y Goo 140 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 62 par11/076OR 626 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 61 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f7y Gd 121 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 61 par1/085OR 616 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 61 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f6y Sft 133 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 68 par2/095OR 685 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Hamilton 20/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f6y Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 68 par20/094OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Hamilton44th3rd+1
2026-09-17Ayr52nd2nd0
2026-09-02Hamilton56th6th0
2026-08-08Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-08-01Hamilton59th9th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0531/072/0920/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
04/06/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
11/07/20266th10/382%29%-0.54
31/07/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
01/08/20269th5/174%20%-0.54
08/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
02/09/20266th13/266%38%-0.28
17/09/20262nd10/147%95%+0.47
20/09/20264th3/184%57%-0.27