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6

Crown Inn To Win

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57

Hamilton · Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win at Wolverhampton in April but having had a breathing operation, was never going to see things out having been even keener than usual back from 3 months off at same course in late-July. Handicapper drops him 1 lb and usual hood is discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/1155 @ Newcastle 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Newcastle 14/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m5y Sta 121 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 51 par14/026OR 516 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 49 · 1m4f14y Std 122 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 52 · 1m4f51y Std 127 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 52 par9/036OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 1m4f51y Std 129 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 53 par27/046OR 535 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m3f140y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 58 par30/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-05-09Haydock53rd2nd+1
2026-04-27Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-02-24Southwell62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1124/0227/0430/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20259th80/10%0%0.00
05/12/20257th250/10%14%+0.14
14/02/20268th14/126%0%-0.26
24/02/20262nd22/10%75%+0.75
09/03/20262nd6/492%83%-0.09
21/04/20262nd6/594%80%-0.14
27/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
09/05/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
30/07/20267th9/276%45%-0.31