5
Hansteen
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 58
Hamilton · Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Catterick | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 08/04/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |