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3

Hickton

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Hamilton · Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed this corresponding race last year and resumed winning ways at Southwell (1¾m) in April. Has largely struggled since but back on song with a couple of third-placed efforts in recent weeks. One to consider from this much-reduced mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 49 · 1m4f14y Std 124 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 49 par24/106OR 496 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m6f21y Std 134 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m4f13y Goo 124 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 54 par8/046OR 546 @ Southwell 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m6f21y Std 134 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 57 · 2m102y Std 132 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 57 par7/056OR 576 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m4f5y Goo 134 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 140 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 par20/086OR 566 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 55 · 1m3f15y Sft 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f8y Goo 138 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 54 par14/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-09-02Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-08-20Newcastle65th5th0
2026-05-22Pontefract66th6th0
2026-05-07Southwell69th9th0
2026-04-25Southwell61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1025/0420/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
13/03/20267th9/276%33%-0.43
08/04/20267th9/276%14%-0.62
25/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
07/05/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
22/05/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
20/08/20265th22/10%64%+0.64
02/09/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
14/09/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29