IvyArcIvyArc
4

Off Spin

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53

Hamilton · Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden but did shape better than the distance beaten suggested when fifth of 10 at Ayr (13f, soft) 10 days ago, still going best when on the shoulder of the leader around 2f out but not able to sustain his effort. Could be worth chancing dropped slightly back in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 1m1f170y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 57 par17/055OR 576 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m4f23y Goo 134 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 55 · 1m2f5y Goo 125 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 55 par8/066OR 556 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m2f Sft 134 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m2f Gd 138 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 55 par5/076OR 556 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m1f Goo 135 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 53 · 1m3f39y Goo 131 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 53 par27/086OR 536 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 52 · 1m4f8y Goo 136 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 52 par18/095OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr55th4th+1
2026-09-14Thirsk62nd2nd0
2026-08-27Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-07-19Redcar66th6th0
2026-07-05Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-19Ayr63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0519/0627/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
27/05/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
08/06/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04
19/06/20263rd11/142%75%+0.33
05/07/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
19/07/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
27/08/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
14/09/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
18/09/20265th5/174%56%-0.18