2
Uncle Liam
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 57
Hamilton · Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap · 1m 4f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 05/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |