IvyArcIvyArc
5

Focaccia

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 47 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 47 par13/05C9OR 47C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 55 · 6f Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 55 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2025 · OR 60 par12/06C5OR 60C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 66 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 67 par13/08C8OR 67C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 67 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 6f 118 · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 67 par24/09C8OR 67C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 68 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 72 par7/04C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2025-10-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2025-09-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2025-09-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2025-08-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2025-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/054/0724/097/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
22/05/20252nd25/10%88%+0.88
12/06/20254th9/153%50%-0.03
04/07/20256th16/116%29%+0.13
13/08/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
02/09/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
24/09/20252nd5/287%75%-0.12
16/10/20252nd1/195%80%-0.15
07/04/20262nd5/493%80%-0.13