IvyArcIvyArc
3

I'malittlethirsty

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 63

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS23/09C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 58 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 58 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 62 par12/11C6OR 62C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 54 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 54 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 56 par12/05C6OR 56C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 50 · 5f110y Slo 124 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 50 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 55 par15/06C8OR 55C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 58 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/09C8OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-07-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-05-12Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th3rd+2
2026-04-21Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0921/0415/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20254th10/382%40%-0.42
16/10/20253rd11/893%33%-0.59
12/11/20255th9/488%60%-0.28
21/04/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
12/05/20265th6/168%60%-0.08
25/05/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
15/06/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
15/07/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
09/09/20264th13/266%40%-0.26