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Indiana Smoke Show

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

37%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 63 par16/10C8OR 63C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 58 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 49 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 49 par7/04C8OR 49C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 50 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 50 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 60 par26/05C5OR 60C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 74 par7/07C5OR 74C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 65 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 65 par9/09C8OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3
2026-07-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2026-06-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2026-05-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2026-05-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/102/057/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20256th9/276%0%-0.76
05/11/20254th16/116%57%+0.41
07/04/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
02/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
26/05/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
16/06/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
07/07/20266th6/168%17%-0.52
29/07/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
09/09/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14