5
Large Pour
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-11-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA84 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2024-10-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-08-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2024 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/08/2024 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/10/2024 | 2nd | 1/5 | 99% | 88% | -0.11 |
| 14/11/2024 | 8th | 1/1 | 95% | 36% | -0.58 |
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |