4
Mike's Cyclone
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |