1
Stranger's Church
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 16/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |