2
Tail Gunner
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |