6
Zappinit
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |