4
Basil
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |