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10

Beach Dancer

5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 82

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

58%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 81 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/05/2025 · OR 81 par19/05C5OR 81C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark26/06/2025 · OR 77 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 78 par17/07C5OR 78C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 20/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 79 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 1m Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 89 par23/09C5OR 89C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Gd 124C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 83 par14/05C7OR 83C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m110y Slo 119 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 1m70y Gd 119 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 75 par28/07C8OR 75projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2025-10-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th10th0
2025-09-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-1th+2
2025-08-20Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0520/0814/0528/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20254th15/261%50%-0.11
26/06/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
17/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
20/08/20252nd2/189%80%-0.09
23/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
29/10/202510th16/116%0%-0.16
14/05/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
10/06/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
28/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05