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8

Crickenberger

6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 91

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 81 par4/09C5OR 81C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Turfway Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 85 par27/12C8OR 85C5 @ Charles Town 07/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 7f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Charles Town 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 80 par22/03C5OR 80C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 72 par4/07C5OR 72C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 78 · 1m Gd 119 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 87 par10/09C5OR 87projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd0th+2
2026-08-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd1st+2
2026-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-03-22Charles Town?6th4th+2
2026-03-07Charles Town?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/097/034/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20255th9/276%56%-0.21
21/10/20254th14/126%40%+0.14
27/12/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
07/03/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
22/03/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
14/05/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
04/07/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
27/08/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12
10/09/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11