Never Really Know
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-02-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/08/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 27/02/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 22/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 12th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |