Surprenant Cocca
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 89
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |