11
Chatterfield
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 25/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |