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Weekend Reveille

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 68

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 19/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS19/12C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 81 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 70 par13/10C9OR 70C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m110y Gd 122 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 75 parC9 @ Turfway Park 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m 121 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 77 par13/12C9OR 77C6 @ Turfway Park 29/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m4f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 75 parC9 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m110y Fas 126 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 77 par12/04C9OR 77C9 @ Churchill Downs 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m110y 125 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 71 par15/05C9OR 71projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-15Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-04-12Keeneland?7th7th0
2026-03-29Turfway Park?8th5th+3
2025-12-13Turfway Park?6th6th0
2025-11-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2025-10-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/123/1112/0415/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20245th33/10%50%+0.50
24/04/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
13/10/20258th40/10%22%+0.22
03/11/20253rd9/276%67%-0.10
13/12/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
29/03/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
12/04/20267th33/10%45%+0.45
15/05/20264th4/179%40%-0.39