2
Blazy
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 86
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |