11
Alcala Politica
2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 52
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Maiden · 1f 80y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -40.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |